What can be tolerated ? ‘State controls Terror’ or ‘Terror controls State’ ?

Today, on the occasion of the 9/11 attack, an important event in World Politics, my mind asked my keyboard to help him in writing his opinion, and, as if my keyboard was about to ask it, he immediately replied my mind, ‘Let’s start !!’

It is being said that, Asia is being shaped largely by the outlook of the US, the power of China, the weight of Russia, the collectivism of ASEAN, the presence of Japan, volatility of the Middle East and the Rise of India. But, at present, 1 more element should be added, that is, Afghanistan Conundrum. Let’s see why is it?

The epoch-defining terror attack in New York 20 years ago reverberated around the world. It changed the definition of terrorism, the destinies of nations and their foreign policies. It redefined global power equations, and in many parts of the world, the aftermath of that event redrew maps. India was profoundly impacted. In the two decades since, the reverberations have been reflected in India’s internal and external security policies. foreign policy and strategic outlook.

After the 9/11 attack, the US invaded Afghanistan and established rule over there. Whatever happened in the last 2 and half decades is already a story told before. So, let’s focus on the present and future.

From my perspective, the chief players in this conundrum are – USA, Russia, Iran, China, Qatar, Pakistan, India, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Saudi Arabia. The US has spent $2.3 Trillion on 20 yr war and $143 billion on the country’s reconstruction. This longstanding war killed about 3586 US and Allied troops. In the case of India, India has 5 major investments in Afghan…

1. Zaranj – Delaram road connecting Iran with Kandahar – Herat Highway.
2. Pul-e-khumri power line over Salang Pass that even today carries Uzbek electricity to Kabul.
3. The Chimtala substation, largest in afghan for electricity distribution in Kabul.
4. The Afghan-India Friendship Dam (Salma Dam) is a hydroelectric and irrigation dam project located on the Hari Rud River.
5. Afghan Parliament. 

Altogether, these things cost about $3 billion investment by India.

As we know, the Taliban seized Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, on 15 Aug 2021. Taliban was established by America with help of Pakistan, to give a tough fight to Russian expansion in the Cold War. The supreme leader of the Taliban government from 1996 to 2001 was Mullah Omar. Now, after 20 years, the Taliban regime is reemerged in Afghanistan. 4 days ago, they declared their 33 man ministry.

Here’s the list of some key Ministers.

• Acting PM: Mohammad Hasan Akhund ( Long time head of Taliban’s powerful decision making body Rehbari Shura )
• Dy PM’s :- Abdul Ghani Baradar and Abdul Salan Hanafi
• Interior minister:- Sirajuddin Haqqani ( 1. Head of pro-ISI Haqqani network, 2. He has ties with Al-Qaida, 3. He is FBI’s Most wanted man with $5mn bounty. Father:- Jalaluddin Haqqani, after whom he became head of Haqqani. )
• Defense Minister:- Mullah Yaquoob – Son of Mullah Omar.
• Foreign Minister:- Amir Khan Muttaqi.
• Junior Foreign Minister:- Sher MD Abbas Stanekzai ( Passout from IMA )

The serious fact is that, out of these 33 ministers, 18 are under the UNSC 1267 sanctions.

Northern Alliance [ Led by Ahamad Massoud and Amrullah Saleh ] gave a Very tough fight to the Taliban in Panjshir Valley, maybe, still giving. But, now the world is trying to negotiate and adjust with the Taliban rather than supporting their opposition. If the world would have supported the opposition, then, Taliban would not have been able to keep their government stable.

If we look towards the overall landscape, created after the Taliban upsurge, the new dimensions of foreign policy have been evolved. That event propelled all countries to recalibrate their foreign policy. Afghanistan became the centrepiece of all nation’s foreign policy. Taliban has declared China as their main Economic Partner. China decided to invest more than $31mn in Afghanistan. Russia and China gave nod to the Taliban regime as Afghanistan’s Official Government. India, the USA and many other countries are still mulling on the situation and citing their approach as ‘Wait and Watch Policy’.

If we have read newspapers in the last 2-3 months, we can observe that India has great Interest in the Middle East. We have invested a lot in the middle east. Telling all those will be absurd, as you all have already learnt about it. So, After the Taliban take over, Indian interests have been endangered. When Russia came ahead to settle these disputes by putting ‘TORIKA’ talks, she didn’t include India in that. That was surprising for every Indian. At the same time, as August was running, India was chairing UNSC chairmanship. That gave us quite leverage on a global level to express concerns about terrorism and Maritime security.

The next subject of anxiety before India is the possible formation of QUAD-2 ( Quad-2 is the idea of social media, none of those countries announced it officially. ) Interests of Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran have great convergence, which is very sinister for Indian Interests. They all are supporting the Taliban. QUAD-2 possibility, Coming of all those nations is the same axis as a joint threat for India, India’s Exclusion from TROIKA talks, etc. all these events are putting a very big concern before us, i.e., we need some leverage in South Asia to attain Balance of Power in Asian Region. We have to be very vigilant and well-prepared.

Another concern is a designation given to Sirajuddin Haqqani. Haqqani network is very very bad for India as it has shared relations with ISI, Al-Qaida, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. It implies that Afghan can be used as a training ground for terrorists destined for India. But there are some issues between PAK and Afghan too. So, there is very low clarity about this.

What India can do in this volatile situation? There are many options in front of India. Exercising, Engaging more with QUAD countries, Increasing our clout in Maritime Domain, Enhancing and gaining as much as possible from INDO-Pacific, Taking multilateral actions and dialogues ( BRICS summit, 13th edition, chaired by India, was successful to address the threat from Terrorism, That is the perfect example of multilateral engagements. We have 2-3 more attempts in nearby future. We have SCO summit, Quad summit, we can express profoundly at UNSC as we are one of the non-permanent members of UNSC council, etc. )

India should take more quick and effective steps by contemplating evolving situations, such that, decisions made by us won’t harm India’s National interests. So, let’s see what MEA does to confront this emerging and volatile situation. On the occasion of Ganesh Utsav, let’s pray to ‘Vighnaharta’ to give us the power to deal with this boiling issue.

{ I haven’t covered all the points in this post as those are very pervasive. If I have put something wrong, then put your suggestions in the comments. I Will ensure that I have taken all your comments into account and try to improve my knowledge }